02 Aug 2024 + Nifty down 160pts, BankNifty perfectly flat + Are we turning?
Nifty Stance Neutral ➡️
It is too early to go short, but the US markets have already reversed and the news coming in is pretty bleak. Reports suggest the legend WB has unloaded 50% shares of Apple & has a cash balance of $277 billion — source.
We only fell 160pts ~ 0.64% this week and this is after hitting the prestigious milestone of 25000. The new ATH is 25078.
Friday’s price action was pretty intense, we dropped 293pts ~ 1.17% and closed at the low point of the day. Just for comparison, Japanese markets fell 5.83%. One thing is obvious, Indian markets are showing extreme resilience compared with global peers.
SPX fell -1.84%, NDQ -2.38%, and guess what our Gifty is still hovering around the same levels as the spot. I am not quite sure if we will have a Black Monday or not, but if we break 24600 levels, it is shorting time.
Even if you agree with me or not, Nifty has really run up a lot, much more than rational expectations. Even if we correct 20% we may not enter a bear market!
BankNifty Stance Neutral ➡️
Would you really believe me when I say the close of 23rd Jul and 2nd Aug Friday are the same? Unlike Nifty, BN did not hit a new high this week, the 11.21 candle of 29th Jul stands out real bad 1158pts ~ 2.21% in an hour. Was that an early warning shot? Quite unlikely as the follow through was just not there, it may go down as another stop loss hunt.
This week we also saw the circular from SEBI saying that people are losing close to 40000+ crores in futures and options trading. I am not really sure why the research is so shallow, the market is not losing 40000 crore per se. There are winners also in the markets, 40000+ cr is getting transferred from the losers to the winners just like any efficient markets. I do not really see a problem here.
I wrote an article about that, take a look.
If we are going down, Banknifty has to crack and it looked pretty strong on Friday by losing only 0.41% vs N50 1.17%. Monday is going to be exciting for all of us. Will the bears awaken this time?
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