06 June 2024 — Nifty above 22781 resistance, BankNifty slightly bullish + PostMortem and Weekly…
Nifty Analysis
Over the last 1 week, Nifty is up only 1.33% ~ 300pts, but we witnessed one of the most violent weeks in the last 4 years. Primarily because the exit polls overshot the expectations which gave a gap up of 3.5% ~ 792pts and then the actual polls came less than expected and this ensured we had a brutal fall of 2062pts ~ 8.84%.
Once the dust settled, we retraced the lost ground yesterday and closed at the same levels as 31st May. Today was a decent day, but not without volatility. For some reason or the other, I did not participate in the expiry day trading today, and was more than happy to just watch than do.
My forecast for today was a neutral day, but we ended up having a trending day. We rose 201pts ~ 0.89% to close just above the 22781 resistance. Most of you would have seen the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on the chart yesterday, seems like we are respecting those levels today also — but the resistance cut through is prompting us to change the stance to bullish. The next target would obviously be to take out the ATH.
All eyes now would be on the oath ceremony wherein Narendra Modi may be crowned the PM for a historic third term. Read a whatsapp forward that he was Pradhan Manthri for the 2 terms and will be a Pradhan Man-three this time as the coalition is held by 2 other parties TDP and JDU.
BankNifty Analysis
BankNifty opened gap up and quite above the 48947 resistance line. The beauty of the price action today was that, we never fell below this support level — this could be taken as evidence of bullishness.
And like old times, the pattern appears to be a W, double bottom. Each of the levels appears perfectly landing on either the support or the resistance levels. The outperformance today was from SBI, quite on the expected lines as PSU sectors could continue the euphoric status due to policy continuation.
We are slightly bullish on banknifty and expect to take out the last ATH levels of 49952 soon, I am not sure about 51133 as of now though.
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