06 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty | Unusual spike at 3pm today
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: For tomorrow I continue to maintain the bullish stance unless 19450 is broken.
Nifty opened inline today and held its ground till 09.40 after which it started falling. The fall was not quick or scary but gradual and steady. We dropped 112pts ~ 0.58% by 13.35 and went down till 19491 from where we got a massive reversal.
The level from which Nifty took support could be rounded off to 19500. Any further weakness would have triggered another round of selling and the breakout momentum would have been shot in the arm.
Luckily we had a massive reversal, quite honestly I did not expect it to be this intense. Nifty gained back 145pts ~ 0.75% to close above the swing high at 19618. This is in line with the bullish technical analysis.
If you look at the 1hr TF the W pattern still holds strong. Also the 14.15 green candle negates the 5 prior red candles creating a bullish ambience. For tomorrow, I wish to continue the bullish stance and the first target in sight would be to take out the next swing level of 19678. Unless any misadventures from SPX and NDQ overnight — we should be cruising upwards. Protective stop loss will be 19490 or below.
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BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, banknifty got only 4 trading sessions. The last expiry was on Thursday and from this series we have weekly expiries on Wednesdays now. We have gone up by 405pts ~ 0.92pts although the chart doesnt give you that impression
BankNifty Today Analysis
Banknifty had some strange price behaviour today. Firstly it was its first independent expiry after having moved out from Thursdays to Wednesdays. Strange because except HDFCBK every other bank was in the red. Price wise we fell 0.83% ~ 368pts with the low point being 44207.
HDFCBK with its 41% weightage on banknifty can single handedly dictate the terms. Firstly I am not very sure all the banks were falling today & HDFCBK outperforming by a huge margin. This screenshot was taken at 11.54 and see the anomaly.
On the 1hr TF banknifty is still respecting the triple top formation made on the descending trend line. I had a neutral call yesterday and would like to maintain the neutral stance till this status quo is maintained. If BN falls below 44068, I would prefer to go bearish. And if it goes past 44900 we can expect more bullishness.
