11 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty + FinNifty Expiry Analysis
Nifty50 Analysis
Today we had a perfect inverted V formation. The high of the day at exact 12.00 noon. A rally of 82pts from opening level and then a fall of 66pts. Even though nifty fell today, it was showing so much of positive energy and a general reluctance to fall. We will bring up the comparison with banknifty shortly & it will make sense.
Today’s peak formation ensured we are getting a double top at the ATH levels ~ 19508. The profit booking may be attributed to that. If we continue to fall in the coming days — its better to change the bias from long to neutral.
Trades Taken
Yesterday I had reversed my short position to long position & had carried the 19400/19300 PE bullish credit spread overnight. Luckily it worked out alright today. By 10.43 I exited at a price of 29.6/12.9. I exited because more than 50% of premiums had decayed & not because I was bearish.
At the same time I entered into 19400/19300 PE bullish credit spread of the 20th July series for a price of 74.7/48.4. We then had the classic reversal, almost back to the open levels.
Somehow I felt the risk:reward was not matching & then exited the new position at a loss by 14.46 @ 79.7/49.4 and got back to the 19400/19300 PE spread in the 13th Jul series for 32.7/12.3.
The 15.00 candle really scared me and if you calculate the risk:reward was 3980:1020. So I exited the credit spread & went ahead with the call debit spread of 19300/19400 CE @ 176.15/95.15 by 15.03. The rationale being 19300 was still in the money & might offer some cushion as expiry is in 2 days. Whereas 19400 PE could go in the money if the move is 50pts or more.
BankNifty Analysis
Banknifty had a classic bearish pattern today. Opening gap up which was due to positive handout from global markets, then a rally of 205pts till 12.05. From there BN really lost the cool and was falling heavily.
We had a total fall of 475pts ~ 1.05% till 15.05. If you compare the same time frame with Nifty — you will understand how N50 fared better. It did fall but was having a control.
HDFCBK, ICICI, SBI, AXIS looked weak in the afternoon. Till 13.30 all these banks were almost in the green level. I am not quite sure on the reason for the fall, it could be due to Finnifty Expiry. However the options data was showing outright bearishness in the afternoon session.
A lower low formation and breach of the 44780 level (even for a brief period) could open up the downside possibilities in the coming days. It may even restrict Nifty50’s upside dreams.
Finnifty Expiry Special.
Finnifty’s fall was more dramatic than banknifty mainly because HDFC’s impact + BAJFINANCE fell close to 1.18% today. Intraday from top to low the fall was 1.28% ~ 258pts.
Between the last expiry & today finnifty has fallen 2.02% ~ 411pts. If you remember the last expiry, the PEs and CEs were unusually quoting high premiums — never ever seen levels. Today the premiums were lower and in a tight range.
The pattern is looking bearish. We will get more clarity after 13th July once HDFC gets delisted & the merged entity comes into effect. The weight change is something important to look at.
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Standard Disclaimer: The trades taken are no recommendation, blindly following them may cause more harm than good — read more