11 Mar ’24 — Nifty above Support, BankNifty just broke one — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “If US markets advance and take out their ATHs by then, we can expect a huge gap up in the next session. In case the Global macros weaken over the weekend — the Bull’s party could be cut short too.”
Nifty fell 219pts ~ 0.97% intraday and yet it has not broken the support level of 22295. If we had a close below this SR level, we would have changed the stance back to neutral, as it stands the bullish stance continues. The fall was pretty one-sided and had all the characteristics of a profit-booking. The biggest issue we have is that CE short sellers are “weak” handed and they run for cover pretty soon. And every time that happens, the markets go to a higher level just due to momentum. The best time for bears to push down the prices is now, conditions are favorable and we are heading into elections. But they need to be a bit more strong.
On the higher time frame, Nifty has made another higher high and higher low showing the strength of the bullish run. If Nifty50 has to change its character, the price has to fall below 22295 and then below 22051 wherein the higher low will get violated. If 22295 becomes a resistance from there on, then we might even see a triple top formation which should give the Bears an edge. Having said that, the dip buyers are too strong that traders like us feel pissed off. We are witnessing a market that is failing to fall. We all know what would happen if all the participants had a bullish view. Is it not far better if we have a healthy correction and then a new ATH?
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
We have a change in stance on BN today, As soon we had a closing below 47465 we changed the stance from bullish to neutral. We fell 693pts ~ 1.45% today and the structure was pretty negative. BN never really tried to retrace the fall today, just had 1 minor rejection at the support at 11.23, but yielded by 11.55. The ease with which the support got broken got me thinking, what was the real bad news today? I remember seeing the Japan Nikkei trading with cuts of -2.3%. But other than that, I really dont remember reading any other bad news.
On the higher time frame, notice the depth of the RED candles till the support was broken. The single GREEN candle of 6th Mar 09.15 has been negated. Since we broke the support of 47465, the stance is now neutral. For tomorrow we wish to start with non-directional trades on BankNifty and go long if the 47465 resistance gets broken. To go short, BN will have to re-enter the bearish channel and that is like 1000pts away. If we were to fall that many points in a day, we are quite sure Nifty50 will also fall equivalently and most likely go bearish as well. Honestly, why would markets fall that much, what is the reason?
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 20165. Manually squared off the trades at 14.21 just when the markets started to get volatile.
Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan