11 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty — A day to remember — Nifty at 20000
Nifty Analysis
The 50% neutral, 50% bullish stance was taken to give some time for the traders to digest the I-CRR news. Seems like nobody was interested to wait. As soon as we opened — the intention to go up was very clear — how so? Just look at the OTM put prices. All the signs of aggressive put writing with near ATM credit and far OTM debit. Since this pattern was holding throughout the day, I personally went ahead with some long positions.
In today’s price action, there were no reversal or pullback attempts and all the sectors were in green — a rarity usually. And as per DOW theory — if all the sectors are in green — its a true indicator of trend.
On the 1hr TF — just notice the pace at which Nifty50 regained the lost points. It took 42 days and 1hr for Nifty to fall from 19991 to 19223 and just 10 days & 6 hrs to regain it. Which also indicates its a structural bull market.
For tomorrow I wish to continue with the bullish stance, although I would like to take some safety net via long PUTS as we have the CPI (Inflation) data coming up this week.
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BankNifty Analysis
Banknifty had a long call for today even though the I-CRR news would have impacted it more than Nifty50. One of the reasons is the distance left to ATH vs Nifty50. BankNifty had more distance to cover the ATH and for this reason I had the continuation of bullish stance from Friday.
The strength in BankNifty was obvious when NiftyIT started giving up some gains. It was BankNifty’s persistence that kept Nifty surging ahead and finally helped it take out the all time highs. Once Nifty got its boost, even NiftyIT started contributing.
During the last 1hr the boost Nifty50 got from all the sub sectors was humongous. For this same reason there could be some shaving off tomorrow unless BankNifty keeps firing.
BankNifty has to catch up 691pts ~ 1.52% to take out its personal ATH. If this comes by tomorrow — then Nifty50 will also remain in green. Ideally it should. I wish to continue my bullish stance in BankNifty for tomorrow and expect a turbulent FinNifty especially for the near ATM calls.
