13 Jun 2025 — Nifty falls below 25000 + Israel Takes on Iran + PostMortem Report

Nifty Stance Bearish 🐻

Last week, we had gone long at 24616 when the EMAs had a positive cross; things were looking pretty awesome back then. In fact, everything was okay till yesterday 11th June, and we were on track to go for 25400 when the news broke out that Israel may take on Iran. This news byte came on Thursday and immediately our markets fell.

The EMA negative crossover of 25119 came around 11 am yesterday, breaking a streak of 503pts. If you are following me on tradingview, you might have gotten the alert when I switched from long to short. If you are not following me yet, please make sure you do to get these critical alerts, because by the time this report was generated, we lost almost 384 points, and these are essential profits that you would have missed.

Since our stance is now bearish, we will be looking out for short trades. In fact, I ran my bear algos today, but that ended up in a loss as the intraday really belonged to the bulls with a massive +252pts upmove, despite the day ending at (-)169pts.

The next move is not really technical, but geo-political. How Iran reacts to Israel’s aggression would really shake the Western markets. Indian markets cannot remain buoyant, even though we are not directly impacted by this conflict. If Iran does considerable damage to Israel or the US’s military installations, we could see further escalations, and the markets may not hold up well.

In last week’s report, someone had asked me what are my EMA values. The answer is, you need to try inputting many EMA combinations and use the strategy tester to refine the best one according to your time frame. Even if I give away the exact EMAs now, it would be like giving a fish instead of teaching you how to fish. Would you like to eat for 1 day or find a solution that will put food on your table for days to come?