13 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty + Weekly Expiry Analysis of BankNifty
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “I wish to just wait and watch for tomorrow and not get into an aggressive long position until Nifty50 has consolidated at the current levels. I wish to modify my stance to neutral from bullish. If we break the 19870 levels tomorrow — I wish to go short (bearish).”. I did not get into any new long position in Nifty, in fact I rolled up the PE to 19900 from 19800.
The rally momentum is not lost, its just that we had a blip yesterday. Seems like Moneycontrol got the reason for the huge cut on Midcaps and Small caps yesterday — Talk of basket selling by European financial services firm fuels meltdown in mid, small-caps
Nifty50 rallied 0.7% ~ 139pts vs Midcap +0.12% & SmallCap +1.02%. Has some money rotated and re-entered the large caps? The reason I did not go long today — The swing high of 20110 still not taken out. Meanwhile its still a win for the bulls as the final close is above 20000 levels.
On the 1hr chart Nifty50 is looking all the more positive and raring to go. I too wish to go long with downside protection via PUTS. The swings in options prices were crazy and the volume of put writing was intense suggesting more traders are betting on the bullish side. I expect the expiry to be above 19989 if we still have the bullish sentiment. I wish to stay 50% neutral and 50% bullish for tomorrow and would like to go 100% bullish once the swing high of 20110 is taken out.
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BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today BankNifty has gone up an impressive 3.2% ~ 1422pts. Quite a remarkable feat and the major reason why we had a breakout rally. The weekly chart looks pretty loaded up for further gains.
BankNifty Today’s Analysis
Yesterday I remember saying the “rally is still not dead in banknifty” although my view was only moderately bullish. But what we witnessed today was strong bullishness proving me wrong. Today’s intraday swing saw a move of 692pts ~ 1.53% and outperforming the NiftyIT index by a huge margin.
Since we had the weekly expiry today, the options premium started on the lower side. Even though the upward possibility was there, it did not show itself till 11.00. Right after that the option prices started to jump pricing in the mega move that followed. The advantage of using the options flow to guess direction is that it helps you guess the direction with a higher probability. If you club that with the chart patterns — the combination becomes unbeatable.
On the 1hr chart the next resistance should be around the 46302 levels whereas the next support will be 45615. I wish to stay moderately bullish ie. 50% bullish & 50% neutral until the resistance is not taken out. In case we have a beach in support — I wish to go short.