15th Dec ’23–273pts massive upmove — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Analysis
4mts chart link — click here
Results continue to amaze and amuse me. Never have I been rewarded so beautifully for the technical analysis. I strongly do not think it’s because my analysis is getting better, but Nifty50 is becoming more predictable.
Even if you bought this morning right at the gap up of 21298, you would have made another 158-point gain. Nifty’s new ATH is 21492.3. Normally Gap-ups are either held or sold into, and when it rallies after the gap — it shows a fundamental shift in sentiment. Frankly, I am curious to know — who is buying at these levels, or is it just FOMO?
I played the Sensex expiry trades today, the PUT option I sold went up another 84% despite the strike moving up. Usually Puts appreciate when the market falls, but in my case, the spike came when the market was surging. I guess it had to do with the liquidity & new credit spreads getting written. Anyway, it was a treat to watch.
63mts chart link — click here
Nifty has formed a new island at a gap-up showing breakout momentum. My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run. I stopped trading today at 15.00 when Nifty crossed 20400, would you believe we even went up another 92pts before settling at 21456. The reason I pulled out early was because of the unreal speculation & euphoria. The PUT options were looking pretty seducing to short, but I decided to pass. Good to go into a 2 day holiday due to the weekend and reclaim some sanity. Talk to you guys on Monday.
BankNifty Analysis
The patterns and price action on BankNifty were interesting today. For the first time, I noticed a dichotomy with Finnifty’s points. BankNifty and FinNifty had a variance of 0.5% index-to-index basis. This gap remained as such for the entire day. I do not remember the last time they had a sizeable gap. 81.57% weighted stocks in Banknifty have a combined weight of 77.09% in Finnifty — still, we got a variance.
4mts chart link — click here
Today’s gap up was actually in the range set from yesterday. We did not break out until 14.27. So if we do not combine yesterday’s price action with today’s — the final painted picture will be different. The real deal today was NiftyIT which went up 4.56% and Reliance + Adani. SBI also played a part but BankNifty as a whole was not that crazy as Nifty. We finally ended the day with a gain of 0.86%. FinNifty ended with 0.32% gains.
63mts chart link — click here
BN has also made an island formation because of the gap-up yesterday. The stance remains unchanged at bullish. The first support level will be 47754. Meanwhile would like to find out why NiftyIT surged so much, definitely it has to do with some news or insider information.