19 Feb ’24 — A New All-Time Highs — 22186 — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “From 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024 — Nifty was in a narrow range of 21491 to 21913 with a couple of false breakouts/breakdowns. So we are keeping our fingers crossed this time to validate whether it works out. One way to do that is to check for follow-through price action. Blips do not last that long and we usually fall below the resistance (just like what happened on the last 2 occasions).”
The price action today was totally predictable. The break above the resistance of 21913 had an impact on Indian stock markets. Even though SPX & NDQ ended their last session with a loss of 0.48 & 0.9% respectively, it did not stop us from hitting a new all-time high of 22186 today. We even started gap-up followed by sensible price action to close the gap, get the footing, and then rally to new highs. Once we hit the HOD, there was a minor profit booking and we ended the day only with a gain of 81 points.
BankNifty did not show its strength today, ICICI Bank looked in top-class form but none of the other major banks supported it. BankNifty as an index is still not bullish, on top of that NiftyIT was in the RED today. That is something that we don’t witness every day, N50 hitting new highs without the support from BankNifty and NiftyIT.
On the 63 mts time frame, Nifty looks strong and pumped up. We continue to hold on to our bullish stance, if BN or IT index joins N50 — the build-up in momentum will be a treat to watch. Having said that we are not quite sure if we have enough firepower to take out 22500 in this weekly series.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
Even though the 4mts chart looks bullish as the moving averages have a positive slope, the reality is quite different. BankNifty has not managed to find the fire to go “BOOM BOOM”, it is totally lazy and lethargic at its current levels. Today we ended up gaining 150 points ~ 0.32% but a few of the major banks like HDFC Bank, Kotak, and AXIS were not that excited. ICICI on the other hand was totally on another orbit today. If you look at the chart below you can see the fear of heights (blue markers). The best way to get through is with a mega gap-up, which will force the weak hands to run for cover.
Make no mistake, BN has rallied 2094 points ~ 4.69% from the recent swing low. But visually that rally is not bullish yet, that is because the time factor is at play. BN is very near the top of the bearish channel. A break above 47016 and then 47465 will give it sufficient momentum to surge through. The biggest factor that is holding up is HDFC Bank which has fallen after its results. We guess the bulls are waiting for HDFCBK to regain its footing so that the index itself can break free. The only way Nifty can get past 22500 is with the help of BankNifty. We do not remember the last time where Nifty50 kept making new highs without the support of BN.
Algo Trading
Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs3793.
· Intraday Algos run via AlgoTest on Kotak
· Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan