19th Dec ’23 — Nifty adds a NEW ATH to its kitty — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance — I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also.”
4mts chart link — click here
Nifty does another gap-up today which is sold into falls over 142pts ~ 0.66% to hit an intraday low of 21337 before reversing. Quite interestingly it came to my level of 21341 and I was ready to change my stance — but the reversal came quite fast. Thank God, I didnt pull the trigger.
Guess what happened then — we had a healthy rising momentum and we took out the 21500 levels. The new ATH is 21505. After highs were hit — we gave way to profit booking and fell 76pts ~ 0.36% to close the day with just 34pts gains.
63mts chart link — click here
Nifty has positively surprised everyone this month. After surging past the 20875 levels — N50 is not willing to take the rest. We broke out from the ascending channel, now it has formed a trend line well above that — how do I explain this craziness to someone? For tomorrow the bullish stance continues and the first support level will be 21407.
Meanwhile, the Geo-political developments in the Suez Canal are looking pretty disappointing. It may take a week or two to get the real impact of it. If the ships are rerouting via South Africa — it only means higher supply-chain costs & delays. The first needle to watch maybe will be CrudeOil.
BankNifty Analysis
Going neutral on BankNifty worked out pretty well today. But things were not looking in favor till we got the reversal at 10.03. Till then BN was following the falling price action from yesterday. I was kind of worried that we may even re-renter the ascending channel today.
4mts chart link — click here
How and why we got the reversal — No clue. But BN climbed an impressive 369pts ~ 0.78pts to 48010 levels before giving up gains to close flat. The final close is 0.01% — how much more neutral can we be??
4mts chart link — click here
The ATH on Nifty50 looks like was planted. NiftyIT was falling pretty strongly and it was looking like a one-way trip down. NiftyIT recovered an impressive 423pts ~ 1.21% to help N50 take out the ATHs. So the Sync between NiftyIT, Reliance, and BankNifty was perfectly aligned to get the job done. And after that — things went back to normal. NiftyIt gave up 239pts and BN also dropped 227pts.
63mts chart link — click here
The neutral zone is highlighted by 2 horizontal blue lines. Since tomorrow is BankNifty expiry — I am really looking forward to seeing a directional attempt. I wish to stay neutral till then. BankNifty options premiums were looking pretty good today and were unlike the usual Tuesdays we see. VIX near the 14 range is really helping the option sellers.