19th Oct ’23 — How do we recover from a Gap-Down Like that? — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 172pts ~ 0.87%. Meanwhile, BankNifty fell 1.42% in its weekly expiry (we discussed it in yesterday’s newsletter). Nifty is still range bound whereas BankNifty has dropped below the support. Usually BankNifty leads the reversals, so we can increase our expectation of a fall in Nifty going ahead.
Nifty Today Analysis
Quite interestingly both predictions came true, we broke the targets 19600, 19529 and ended the day with a neutral tone. I was not surprised by the gap-down open of -100pts or so, it was expected as SPX ended the day with a loss of 1.3% yesterday. What surprised me was the recovery of 168pts ~ 0.87% that came between 09.35 to 14.05 wherein Nifty50 traded in the green for a brief period.
Usually, when the bearish targets are taken out it means we are falling and the market has no will or power to climb back. The 5mts candle at 11.25 alone gave a boost of 60pts. Getting your view right and making money are 2 different things you know. The moment you go bearish, you get an instant reversal taking out your stop loss. This might have been the case with most of the traders today.
From the 1hr chart, you can notice how deep the gap-down open today. And the 11.45 candle that closed the gap with a gain of 86pts more or less would have taken the soul out of the bears. Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.
BankNifty Analysis
The main villain who spoiled the plans for the bears is BankNifty. We had an opening candle swing of 333pts on the downside, but the price action was not looking that bearish for some or other reason. Ideally, we are below the support level of 44068 and any down-swing should have created an avalanche of shorts. Instead, we started climbing back right from the 2nd candle. Leg 1 was complete by 11.25, that 5mts candle alone contributed 189pts and took BN into green territory.
The 2nd leg of the upside came between 13.20 to 14.05. Notice from the chart how the support/resistance level of 44063 came into play today. We had a rejection at 14.05 and BankNifty started moving downwards.
Even though we climbed 503pts ~ 1.16% between the intraday low to high — the rejection at resistance proves the point that we are still bearish. Of the targets set yesterday, 43735 was broken and we got pretty close to 43519. We are getting back to the zone that has good support/resistance marked from the prior price actions. My new targets for tomorrow will be 43404 and 43253 if we are continuing to move downwards. If we go upwards — no action is really required unless 44068 is broken.
India VIX closed at 10.8975 and US VIX is trading at 19.67 the difference between them a whopping 80%. Noting it — in case we do not see drastic variance again.