20 Feb ’24 — Another milestone, 22000 conquered — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “On the 63 mts time frame, Nifty looks strong and pumped up. We continue to hold on to our bullish stance, if BN or IT index joins N50 — the build-up in momentum will be a treat to watch.”
Exciting times as Nifty50 has conquered a new milestone “22000” and BankNifty just turned bullish today. At present, both N50 and BN are facing northwards and that usually is a sign of further momentum build-up. Having said that, SPX and NDQ are trading negatively in the US with losses of 0.84 & 1.39% respectively. FII sell value for today is 1335 crores and the other European markets are trading mostly in RED or flat. So we are in a unique position where Indian markets are looking optimistic and roaring to go whereas global markets are a bit subdued.
Unusually high inflows of SIP via domestic mutual fund AMCs are the primary reason we are staying afloat. Even after so much money making its way to the financial markets, we are in no way close to the bank’s fixed deposit volume & volume growth. One thing we are not sure about is whether this money inflow is due to the blind trust in the current Govt’s fiscal policies, reforms, and the certainty to return to power. Or is this a structural change and India is truly becoming a financial powerhouse?
If you look at the price action today by N50, we had a RED opening candle which was bought into by 10.15 and then we had one more round of selling between 13.31 to 13.59. But what stood out was the surge of 78 points in the last 30 minutes. It took out yesterday’s swing high and created the new ATH record.
On the 63mts TF, N50 is still looking strong — we would keep our first support level(weak) at 22051 and the main support at 21913. With 2 days to go, will N50 take out the 22500 levels? Reply with your comments below.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
Yesterday we discussed the possibility of HDFC Bank making a move and quite fortunately that came true today. We rallied an impressive 769pts ~ 1.66% today to take out the first resistance (bearish trendline break). Would you believe the elephant jumped 2.63% today along with AXIS Bank 2.41%, Kotak Bank 1.8%. ICICI Bank & SBI was not that stimulated today, even then we managed to rally hard today. Notice the blue-encircled regions where we spent time today trying to break out. The momentum from 14.03 to close was the main and the only reason we had that break through today, otherwise we would have spent the time following the resistance slope.
On the higher timeframe, the break above the bearish channel is loud and clear. But we are below the 47465 resistance line (orange color). Since we have an expiry tomorrow and because BN attained the bullish stance today, we expect those levels to be tested and broken by tomorrow itself. Being in trading, we cannot always remain optimistic and expect things to happen our way — that’s why we engineer stop losses and fix reversal levels. In case something like that happens tomorrow, we will see if the bears are keeping BN below the blue channel line — if yes, we will reverse our stance back to neutral and wait for the next trigger.
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs6904. We stopped the algo at 14.24 as a breakout was looking imminent. We will have to backtest it tomorrow to see if it was the right decision.
· Intraday Algos run via AlgoTest on Kotak
· Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan