21 Mar ’24 — Nifty goes from bearish to neutral, thanks to SPX — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem…
Nifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “Momentum is a great thing in technical analysis, the trend starts only when the momentum is in favor because if things stay as it is — markets will recover.”
Whatever trap was set up by the Bears, it was busted open today with the gap-up. We opened 167 points ~ 0.76% ensuring we are opening right above the resistance 21913. And that also meant we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral. We discussed how the weak hands and the short covering they create spoil the entire trap. See what happened with the 22051 resistance too, there were 2 strong green candles — 10.03 and 10.07 that would have given the feeling that we are breaking this zone also. If the bear market is still in play, we will reverse sharply tomorrow.
On the higher time frame, we created an island day, thanks to the gap-up. Momentum is still something Nifty50 was not able to find so far, mainly because follow-up buying or selling was just not there. Even in the small bearish phase we had, BankNifty’s lack of participation meant our run would be cut short. To resume the downtrend we have to break the swing low i.e. fall below 21690 and we hope if that happens the momentum will kick start. To go long we need to go above 22295 as soon as possible.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty gaps up 422pts ~ 0.91% but doesn’t go anywhere. We are neither bullish nor bullish again. One thing was quite clear today, the downside was quite absent today. In fact, our lows of 46651 were protected pretty well. The gaps were because of the outperformance by SPX, NDQ yesterday. Yesterday, the US FED decided to keep the rates flat and also indicated there could be up to 3 interest rate cuts this year. Even though it could be an election gimmick, the markets reacted positively and this spillover effect ensured we are also outperforming. But what it really did was abort the bearish flow. BankNifty was never bearish, but Nifty was and that flow got interrupted.
On the higher time frame, the bearish setup did not really start but the patterns look promising. What we need to see if we are getting followthrough on the bullish side tomorrow or not. Next week the trading is cut short by 2 days due to Holi & Good Friday, so I am guessing the decision might be taken tomorrow itself. We would prefer to start the day tomorrow with the neutral stance and then take it from there.
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs19360 mostly because BN maintained a small range today.
Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan