22 Feb ’24 — Back to winning ways, grass is greener at the Bull’s side — Nifty & BankNifty…
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
Honestly speaking, we fell into the bear trap today as the forenoon session was immensely negative. Look at the first 2 encircled regions. The first circle between open and 09.51 wherein we gave away to the 22051 support. The next 4 candles were also RED and we did not stop till the main support of 21913 was hit. We got our bias wrong as we gave weightage to the price action between 22051 & 21913, we thought the selling may not stop there.
The 2nd encircled area was at the 21913 region i.e. from 10.03 to 11.35. When we saw the markets were not cracking further, we adjusted our “short CALL” positions, and as markets started recovering, we trailed the “short PUT” positions to offset the gain in the short CEs. Again our view went absolutely wrong when the markets did not stop at 22051, even though we had a pause between 13.47 and 14.27. What then followed was the dream of an option buyer and a nightmare for option sellers like me. The momentum was so strong that we took out the ATH. Nifty had an intraday swing of 378 points ~ 1.73%. The swing was so wild that it would have taken out any stop loss set on premiums, over the last few days — markets are really testing the nerves of option traders.
Between the last expiry and today, N50 has gained 291pts ~ 1.33%. The moves of the last 4 days were recreated in just today’s session — must be a new record. As soon as the 22051 resistance gave away, we had to change our stance from neutral to bullish. We would now like to see how higher the markets can go, we are assuming the momentum may not take us to 22700 for the monthly expiry.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
BankNifty did not have as much of a wild swing as Nifty50 had today, interestingly the SR trendline (blue sloping line in the below chart) was in action. We fell below this support at 09.59 and stood there till 14.59. Only in the last 30mts we managed to go above this level. If you notice in detail it is when BN crossed this resistance that N50 surged past its 22051 SR. Let us not steal the credit as it was all NiftyIT that helped N50 do its magic. BankNifty even though ended with a loss of 0.21% — we are still bullish on it.
In fact, we had one 63mts candle below the blue trend line today and ideally, we should have changed the status from bullish to neutral. Had BN stayed lower and not reclaimed its lost ground, we would have 100% gone with a neutral stance for tomorrow. As it stands the next resistance is at 47465 and it is a tough level. If the euphoria from the US markets is spilling to ours tomorrow (SPX +1.96%, NDQ +2.87% as of writing) — then we might even have an outlier GREEN session tomorrow.
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs2583.
· Intraday Algos run via AlgoTest on Kotak
· Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan