25 Jan ’24 — Unusual last 30mts of price action — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis + Banks…
Nifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
The main objective of the morning session was spent undoing the bullish surge yesterday. The selling pressure got arrested by 11.00, by then we had already fallen 214pts ~ 1.00%. We then had a quick surge till 11.39 followed by a gradual coo off. The LOD remained at 21247 proving that the BEARS are still in the game. What surprised all of us is the price action in the last 30mts. It did not look like a technical action, most likely it could be a news/event that broke out to a select group of people or insiders. Hope we get some clarity on that by Monday when we reopen.
Yesterday’s W pattern is no longer valid as today’s action has nullified it. Our stance continues to be neutral with a slight inclination to the bearish side. Seems like FIIs are not done unwinding their positions — the run-up to the Budget 2024 looks interesting.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Bearish ⬇️
The unusualness of the last 30mts was more obvious in the Banks — HDFC, ICICI, AXIS and Kotak. Seems a news/event is brewing and we may get some clarity in the coming days. The good thing is that it broke out pretty late in the day, which meant the expiry was not totally screwed.
How many Analysts you know are bearish on the banks, most of them we follow are Permabulls. Seems like the criticism we are getting is obvious in the price action today. Except for the last 30mts — every other minute belonged to the bears today. When news/event breaks out — the best thing a technical analyst could do is close the position and wrap the day.
BN got support from our marked SR level of 44542. The next level below is 44068 which is the strongest SR level in the proximity. The history of 44068 levels goes back to Dec 2022 (quite a long way back). Our stance of bearishness continues and hope Monday belongs to the bears. We have started automating a few of our trades via AlgoTest and first impression — everything looks good.