27 Mar ’24 — Nifty takes out 22051 resistance, 22295 next? — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis
Nifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th”
Nifty did more than okay today, we opened above the resistance level of 22051 and then steadily climbed to 22181 before cooling off. We then had another attempt from 13.11 to 14.15 where we went till 22193 before falling off the cliff. We fell exactly 100 points to 22100 levels and then managed to recover a bit to close at 22147. Ideally, we cannot make out anything significant today as most of the trades would have been year-end rebalancing — both by the DIIs as well as the FIIs. The inflow & outflow and weight adjustments will be there tomorrow as well as it is the last working day of this financial year.
We are still hanging on to the inverse head and shoulders pattern and strongly hope we should have some movement to the 22295 levels by tomorrow. NiftyIT is showing too much weakness and if BankNifty also sides to the downside then there is a high possibility that we may not break out. How long can RELIANCE keep supporting this market? We wish to maintain our neutral stance for tomorrow and go long if we are nearing 22295 in the morning session itself.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty also started the day with a gap up and then an immediate rise to the 46920 levels. This did not sustain as we gradually fell back to 46690 levels between 10.35 and 15.07. Surprisingly we had a 284pts rally in 15 minutes right back to the 46920 zone. The final close at 46785 looked pretty decent with the major gains coming from HDFCBK, AXIS, and KOTAK. For a brief period, it was interesting to see ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank going the opposite way thanks to the year-end rebalancing.
On the higher time frame, BN looks flat, I am totally unable to make out the next direction with the current chart pattern. What was really lacking for the last 3 months was consensus in choosing the direction, among Nifty50, BankNifty and NiftyIT. NiftyIT is so beaten that a quick recovery is ruled out. Only if BN aligns with Nifty50 we can have a breakout.
Algo Trading
Due to a production key error, I was not able to set up the execution on AlgoTest today — hence no trades.
Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan