30th Nov ’23 — Good and Volatile Monthly Expiry — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Monthly & Weekly Expiry Analysis
On a weekly basis, we are up 314pts ~ 1.59%, and on a monthly basis, we are up a stunning 979pts ~ 5.12%. We took out 5 important resistance levels in this current month ie 19226, 19310, 19446, 19562, 19776. Most of the points were gained by gap-ups and not during the trading day which means either the sentiments changed outside of trading hours or the bulls were not able to drive away the bears during the trading day and had to rely on gap-ups for short covering.
Nifty Today Analysis
5mts chart link — click here
The 20000 PE which was bought as a hedge for the OTM short positions was in action today. Even though I exited it prematurely, It went from Rs11 to Rs39 today. See the encircled region in the chart — 09.40 to 10.05. The steam was let off by then and we quickly gained back ground. Nifty50 was trading below water, mainly due to the pressure from BankNifty. But by 13.40 — Nifty made its intentions clear to go green.
The real push came between 14.15 and close wherein Nifty gained 101pts ~ 0.5% to end the day with credible gains of 36pts. Meanwhile do not get swayed away by the FIIs buy number today — as it may be due to the MSCI inflows on the top largecaps.
1hr chart link — click here
On the 1hr TF, 20015 was today’s stop and reversal level. The hourly candle seemed pretty strong, but some credibility has to be given to this new support level. I wish to continue with my bullish stance, the upper target will be the ATH and the lower target will be the new support of 20015.
BankNifty Monthly and Weekly Analysis
BankNifty gained an impressive 1023pts ~ 2.36% over the last week, whereas the monthly gains of 1446pts ~ 3.36% were sub-par compared with Nifty. One of the reasons could be attributed to the news event on 17th Nov that took out some bullish momentum on banks.
BankNifty Today Analysis
From yesterday’s analysis, I was long into BankNifty and was quite surprised to see the breach of support level 44542 by 09.45. The candle that crossed this SR line took out 154pts, luckily no damage was done and we found a safety net at 44280 levels.
5mts chart link — click here
I have not fully subscribed to the idea that the opening fall was due to the over-buying yesterday. Anyway, the bears were not able to overpower the bulls today, if so then we should have retested the 44063 levels. I do not plan to change my stance to neutral until that happens.
1hr chart link — click here
The exit polls declared after hours today might show its impact in the forenoon session. I did not carry forward any position for tomorrow and decided to play as it is after the opening. If Banknifty is not able to accelerate to the next resistance of 45399, it could pose some trouble to the current trend. We all know how important the banks are for Nifty’s ATH recoup.