4th Dec ’23–418pts breakout on election results — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “I would like to see this as a breakout with a new higher high in the cards. For this to happen, BankNifty has to reclaim its ATH”
5mts chart link — click here
For those long on Friday, it would have been a dream come true. 347pts gap-up open followed by a steady and healthy rally. We ended up gaining 418pts ~ 2.07% today. When was the last time you saw a 2% move upwards?
It was not purely a technical move (breakout) that led to these gains, it was news flow-related. BJP won 3 state elections i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh giving a strong signal that the Lok Sabha elections for 2024 are almost in their pocket.
The rally had nothing to do with BJP per se, markets always love stability. So irrespective of the party, whichever faction is at the centre — if they keep winning the elections, markets will go euphoric. The purchase volumes from the institutions is a clear proof.
1hr chart link — click here
Nifty has made an island today and is in uncharted territory. If the momentum persists, we can see unusual outperformances. If there is negative news or weakening global macros — we can see a fall too. Since we have broken out from an ATH, the chances of momentum continuation are higher. I would continue to hold on to my long stance. The first reversal point is at 20300 levels which is quite deep even for a stop-loss trigger.
BankNifty Analysis
The real reason for the outperformance on Nifty50 = BankNifty today. In the last newsletter, we discussed how relevant BankNifty’s next move would turn out to be. Would you believe we took out the ATH today and the new value is 46484.45?
5mts chart link — click here
BankNifty went on to take out the 45399 resistance in the gap-up open itself. The momentum was so strong that it was not retested at all. We went flat for a bit but started trending after 12.10. The total gains today was an astonishing 1617pts ~ 3.61%. The options premiums were going crazy today — even the OTM put options. Such was the euphoria today. NiftyIT was not participating at all in the rally today, but I am sure no one would have noticed that as it was overshadowed by BankNifty’s outperformance.
1D chart link — click here
BankNifty has just managed to climb back up to the double top pattern set on 21st July & 15th Sep. Since today’s green marubozu looks pretty strong, we can safely assume we are past that threat. Momentum-wise, BN has more firepower than Nifty for the immediate short term. I prefer to stick with my long stance until 45399 support level is taken out.