9th Nov ’23 — The opening candle surprises Again — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has risen 260pts ~ 1.36% and has crossed 2 important resistance levels. The bullish momentum has stalled a little bit from 6th of Nov. If further trades happen toward the downside, then the current level will act as a lower high.
Nifty Today Analysis
The opening 5mts candle surprises again, it tells me there is some seller who wishes to push the market down very seriously but not getting enough participants. So the first candle is in deep RED and then we recover that dip till noon.
Nifty was unable to break through the 19446 resistance twice today — which shows the lack of momentum for the bulls. Even though I changed my stance to neutral, it did not help me win money in today’s expiry. Primarily because the options premiums were too low that I did not feel selling too close to the money. Secondly, the bearish move came very late in the day that it did not really help my long PUT position. I took long PUT to counterbalance the long CALL when we were bullish. Against the long PUT, I shorted OTM PUTS to offset the premium paid. Net result — no win, no loss.
On the 1hr TF, it seems like we are making an interim top as multiple attempts to break through @ 19446 have failed. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.
BankNifty Analysis
BankNifty traded totally differently from Nifty50 today. Nifty opened higher and was trading lower, whereas BankNifty took support in the first candle (43566) and was trading higher. We even took out the last swing high to hit an intraday high of 43876 by 11.55.
The afternoon session perfectly matched Nifty’s price action. A gradual but steady downward move. Nifty took out the intraday low in the afternoon session whereas BankNifty stayed above water.
One other reason for this was because the bulk of the loss on Nifty50 came from NiftyIT, RELIANCE & ADANIENT i.e. non BankNifty stocks. So I guess the participants would have purchased Bank stocks to limit the losses on Nifty.
On the 1hr chart, BankNifty is also looking tired. To break through the next resistance of 44063, requires a strong build-up of momentum which looks quite difficult now. BankNifty has not made a rounded top-like formation like Nifty, but if we are to fall from here, BN has to fall first. I wish to maintain my neutral stance for tomorrow as well, the levels being 44063 on the upside and 43566, 43404 on the downside. If either of these levels are broken, I would change my stance to bullish or bearish. Will update the tradingview minds here when I do.