18 Mar ’24 — Is Nifty above or below 22051? Check Chart — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bearish⬇️
Is Nifty above or below 22051? I must change the stance from bearish to neutral if it’s above. If it’s below — then the bearishness continues. As per the chart, Nifty closed at 22051 while the weighted average close was 22055. For some reason or another, I did not feel like punching manual orders today, I just let the algo orders do their magic and was keenly watching the chart and doing nothing. I got a bit excited when Nifty started falling i.e. 11.11 and 11.15 candles when Nifty went till 21916. My marked support was at 21913, so the eagerness was to check if we would break that or not.
If you take a look at the chart, we had multiple instances of touches at 22051 levels, by 14.19 I almost felt we were breaking out and then the bearish positions may go into deep losses. Somehow or the other, I am not able to relate to the price actions of Nifty50, NiftyIT, and BankNifty these days. All 3 of them are never in agreement and you club the “weak hands” holding the CE shorts — a recipe for disaster. The CALL sellers run for cover now and then creating the quick ripples, and then it fades out 30mts hence.
You won’t believe me if I said Nifty50 has made a W pattern (double bottom) on the 63mts timeframe. Take a look, you could spell the entire “W”. Interestingly it has formed at the crucial support of 21913. The only thing that could override this W pattern is the lower high, lower low formation. LH, LL will take precedence over a short-duration pattern all the time. For tomorrow, I would like to start the day with the bearish tone itself and see how the 22051 resistance holds.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty had to fall 400pts to enter the bearish channel. Well, it did not happen today but we had an interesting candle at 11.15, for a brief period BN dips into the bearish channel and then pulls out. Much like testing how deep the water is before taking the jump. The shorts were strong then and the recovery would have prompted the short covering that took BN up 488pts ~ 1.06% above the high of the 11.15 candle.
BN is still neutral as the momentum is missing on the bearish side. Just take a look at the 10.18 (-248pts) and 11.21 (+405pts) 63mts candle. Something tells me the momentum should favor the bulls if we have some consensus. As the CALL shorters are weak, we would need the big boys to enter to really move the needle. FII selling is not really helping. Agreed that NiftyIT tanked today, but the fear factor is still missing on the large caps. If you watch the Nifty sub-sectors you can see how quickly the market breadth changes from GREEN to RED and then back to GREEN. Markets are really on the edge and all it requires is a small push.
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs3430. The charges and the transaction costs were more than the losses as the Algos did quite a lot of adjustments today.
Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan