25th Oct 2024 — Had a good Bear Run, what is the new base?

Nifty Stance Bearish ️⬇️

We fell 649pts ~ 2.61% this week and our bearish stance from the prior week helped us gain some money. My October PnL was in deep red, thanks to the abrupt swings in between — but the unidirectional move this week was a real blessing and I was able to cut down my losses.

The Head and Shoulders position that we published on the daily time frame is getting played out (hope so). For the first time in many months, Nifty’s bottom is not getting dip bought and the pattern has changed to sell on rise. I honestly do not remember the last time Nifty had the sell on rise characteristics.

I wish to maintain the bearish stance till 24333 is not getting taken out conclusively and deep down, I hope that the Bear run continues till the excesses get thinned off.

BankNifty Stance Bearish ️⬇️

BN has fallen only 2.46% ~ 1283 points and is much better than Nifty on a relative basis. IndusInd Bank took a huge beating on Friday as it fell ~ 18.63% due to poor quarterly results. Indian stock markets are not used to such wild reactions, but if our markets start punishing stocks for bad results, I guess it is much better for the future. Ideally, such reactions on stock prices will keep the management on their toes to avoid poor results thereby helping them put in the necessary hard work to achieve the desired results.

ICICI Bank will react to its results today, since we are in a bearish hold, would like to see if Sell on Rise is applicable on this scrip. The main point to consider is that ICICI has more than 27% weightage on BankNifty and is single handedly capable of bringing out BN from the Bear hold.

51101 is my first resistance level above which I will change the stance to neutral. For real bearish momentum to pick up, we need to fall below 49704.

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