23 Jan ’24–5 strong RED candles & broken support — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bearish ⬇️
Last week you saw a 2% fall in Nifty and today it was just 1.54% but the “real intensity” would be missing if you just looked at the headline numbers. Today Nifty fell a whopping 559pts ~ 2.57% HOD to LOD. The gap-up would have trapped a lot of traders today. Most of them would have come ready to hit the BUY button after the euphoria from “Ayodha Temple Inauguration yesterday”. Or it could just be a profit booking as the event is over, we need to understand the run-up to this level was more than ecstatic.
We broke the 21491 support by 12.24. Just look at the strength of the candles today — 5 RED candles followed by a Doji. Our stance changed from neutral to bearish as soon as the support was breached. The bullish channel looks broken and maybe it is time for bears to launch their attack. Ayodhya’s Inauguration was on 22/1/24 and Nifty ATH is 22124 — I guess both these numbers are here to stay for a while. 21038 is the next support followed by 20774.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Bearish ⬇️
Banknifty fell an unbelievable 1696pts ~ 3.64% from the HOD to the LOD. As usual, the gap-up of 472pts would have painted the wrong picture today especially when the Traders came ready to play ICICI on the long side. Never in the day, we got a bullish signal today — it was a one-way journey from that gap-up to the low of the day.
The candle right at the support level of 45399 was the strongest — 215pts fall. This shows the strength the big-boys exerted today to create momentum. Were FIIs pissed off that we made them work on a Saturday?
Both Nifty and BankNifty have the same stance (bearish) similar to the one we had on 17th Jan. When Both the indices are in the same direction, it should be a treat to watch.
The next support comes at 44542 followed by 44068. The odd thing is that Global markets are so positive except China and Hong-Kong. We do not have any bad local macro news except for the Sony-Zee saga and the government’s decision to increase the import duty on Gold & Silver. We strongly feel these positions are for the Budget 2024, If you have a better valid point — do mention it in the comments below. Also, we do not have an expiry tomorrow as both BN and N50 will have the monthly expiry on 25th. Strangely in Jan month, BankNifty’s last working day is the 31st on which it has a weekly expiry, but its monthly expiry is on 25th because Nifty’s on 25th. Some things you see only in India.