12 Jan ’24 — Nifty goes bullish in style! — Nifty & BankNifty PostMortem Analysis
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
Major highlights today
- Gap-up of 120pts ~ 0..56%
- NiftyIT gains 5.14%
- Nifty50 takes out the ATH, new value = 21928
- Nifty goes from neutral to bullish
- Today’s stop came right at the ascending channel top-line
Never seen NiftyIT so stubborn to go up, a gain of 5.14% far exceeds expectations, and that too when the IT majors are at their all-time highs. What we still do not understand is the reason for outperformance when the results were average. Anyway, this was the major reason Nifty50 broke out from the neutral zone to the bullish zone.
Today’s price action was along the top trend line of the ascending channel, and careful enough not to break it. There is no shame in saying traders are cold-blooded. We cannot stick with our bias, direction, or opinions and expect the market to behave as per our analysis. If the markets have turned, we need to adapt. Till yesterday, we were looking for neutral trades with a possibility of going down. See how the tables have turned today. For Monday — we need to look out for bullish opportunities now.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNify opens above the resistance area of 47539 and then briefly falls below that till 09.59. When the entire IT sector was screaming GREEN, Banks were keeping lull. BN had its proper resistance break at 10.07. From there it made 2-legged rise to 47873 before giving away 270pts between 14.39 to 15.07.
We are impressed by BankNifty’s bull attack today that allowed the stance to change from bearish to neutral. But we still do not think it is a bullish case per se. A rising tide does lift all the boats. NiftyIT opened the floodgates of gains today and there would have been some spillover effects on other sectors. We will wait for the euphoria to cool off on Monday and re-evaluate the stance.
BankNifty is still neutral, the breakthrough of resistance has given a positive sentiment to it today — but it did not have the kind of momentum to go up. Take a look at FinNifty — it was flatter than BankNifty today. For Monday, the first thing BankNifty has to do is defend the support of 47539. The bulls will eventually drive it up if they get the confidence that the support is intact.