25th Oct ’23 — When will the 18880 level get broken? — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Analysis
Nifty did not disappoint the Bears today. The start was right at the 19310 level and we managed to stay around that zone till 10.40. Honestly, I was also fearful that my bearish call may not work out today. For the last 1 to 2 years, Nifty has shown unbelievable resilience that will suck the soul out of any bear. Luckily, the fall started to accelerate once we broke from the 19310 laxman rekha i.e after 10.45.
We fell to a new swing low of 19074 intraday, levels last seen as of 30th June 2023. The bounce of 104pts was healthy and gave the bears quite a good premium to enter the 2nd level of shorts.
On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows. If we get that tomorrow — we are in for a treat, because the entire price action above 19310 right up to 20222 will lose its relevance. I wish to maintain my bearish stance for tomorrow’s expiry and hope to collect some good premiums. A noticeable change we saw today was the spike of India VIX to 12 levels. Although we cooled off and closed at 11.3125, the future holds promise.
BankNifty Analysis
BankNifty was a pure support and resistance play today. If you had seen my charts earlier — you would have seen the marked SR zones and noticed how we reacted to 3 of those levels today. Open was gap-up above the 43253 SR level. We went up to 43404 zone and got rejected and came back.
We spent some time back at the 43253 levels with no special directional intent. The options flow was perfectly in sync with this non-directional bias for this short period. The rejection of 43253 came at 12.00 (strong red candle) and we cut through the 43012 SR level by 12.40 (another strong red candle). From there we retested the 43012 level at 14.10 & 14.15 only to be rejected.
One of the reasons BankNifty held its ground today was due to these closely stacked support/resistance levels if not we should have fallen more than Nifty50 today.
On the 1hr TF, the next level to watch out is 42576. Below that there is a big gap till 41624, which means if we manage to break 42576 tomorrow — the next fall is going to be steep enough. BN will have its expiry along with Nifty50 tomorrow and I wish to maintain my bearish stance.