29th Sep ’23 — Convincing Reversal and then a strong fall — PostMortem on Nifty & BankNifty
Nifty Analysis
We are beginning a new weekly, monthly and quarterly (Q3 2023–24) series today. Yesterday’s close = 19523.
My bearish view was thrown into the dustbin today by Nifty50. We opened gap up and then started rallying very strongly. We hit the high of 19726 by 14.30 and then had a sharp correction. We went up 174pts and then gave away 107pts in last 1hr.
To go bullish, the level marked was 19766 — but a closing near the 19700 values would have prompted me to change the stance to neutral. As per the chart the fall of 107pts still gives Nifty a bearish sentiment.
On the 1hr chart I just drew the sloping orange line — this is connecting yesterday’s and today’s top. Notice the blue encircled region — those are the hourly candles for yesterday — all RED. Till 14.00 I was wondering how could we even have such a strong reversal today — won’t that negate the move made yesterday?
My stance still remains bearish with the first downside target of 19446. The moment we break 19776 on the upside — I wish to exit the short stance and go long.
BankNifty Analysis
The main reason Nifty50 moved up instead of falling was BankNifty. The opening was strong and gain BN held its ground. Today’s low much higher than yesterday’s close.
From that level we rallied 408pts ~ 0.92% to hit a high of 44756. Unlike N50, BN retested yesterday’s high and then reversed from there. My report yesterday was on the bearish side — but today’s price action is advising me to go neutral.
The intraday move on NiftyIT should not go unnoticed — we climbed an impressive 1.59% ~ 501pts. Meanwhile RELIANCE also started contributing heavily between the 10.45 to 13.30 period. Overall it was a strong rally but was cut short at 14.30
On the 1hr TF BankNifty has made a W pattern which is seriously challenging the bear run. For the next working day i.e Tuesday I wish to go with a neutral stance and then modify to bullish if we take out the 44860 in the morning session.