27 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty — Day went in the wrong direction, was it news…

Nifty Analysis

Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart we are almost at the center point of the orange lines (support and resistance) i.e. 19562 and 19786. Nifty has to either fall below or rise above one of these lines to make the big move. Personally, I prefer if it breaks the support and falls to the 19470 levels by tomorrow. As long as Nifty does not do that — I wish to maintain my neutral stance.”

Yesterday SPX closed with a loss of 1.57%, as I write SPX is trading at -0.37% cuts today. The moment Nifty50 opened today — I was calculating a 1.5% fall would mean the 19310 is getting taken out today itself.

The opening 1hr gave me that feeling, and we broke the last swing low of 19601. Then at 10.30 we saw a trend reversal — we went up 176pts ~ 0.90%. Simply unbelievable price action. This move came as a total surprise and I did not even have a trade to play.

At 11.15 seeing a pause, I thought we will have the leg2 of fall. What happened was we went up not down. I got the same feeling at 12.15 that we will not cross yesterday’s close — markets broke that too. By the time we hit 19700 — it was too late for me to plan for a bullish trade.

On the 1hr TF, Nifty clearly hit the downside orange line of 19562 — but did not get enough followthrough and I am still wondering why. The next 6 candles after the first one in green — usually seen during bullish phases.

I am still not changing my stance from neutral as we are still between 19777 and 19562. If we break above 19777 I wish to go long tomorrow, whereas if we break 19562 — I’d prefer to go short. Meanwhile, if you know why Nifty made this strange move today — do let me know.

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BankNifty Analysis

For BankNifty I had a bearish view today. The day started exceedingly well with a gap down and then a fierce 479pts ~ 1.07% fall w.r.t the previous close. Just like Nifty, BankNifty also started rallying right at 10.35.

BN ended up gaining 483pts ~ 1.1% and ended the day with just -35pts loss. Just like I mentioned in the Nifty analysis above, I wasn’t planning for this reversal move — I was just like a deer caught in headlights.

Banknifty is still in bear territory and has to climb above 45399 to regain the bullish bias. Looking at the chart, I am not in favor of going neutral too — maybe the length of RED candles is clouding my judgment. 44068 is the main support to watch out for.

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