15 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty | Crazy last 30mts in HDFCBK and RELIANCE
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: I wish to stay with the moderately bullish stance for tomorrow as well. Since I am holding a long position my personal preference would be to close above 20167.
We had a good positive day today, the start itself was right at the swing high of yesterday and we built up the momentum from there. The euphoria, FOMO continues and people continue to pour money. Nifty Energy, FMCG, Metals did not close in the green today. ONGC had a super start but gave up all the gains soon. The real question now is — Does Nifty have more firepower to continue the rally?
Two instances of pull back stands out today, first at 12.05 to 12.30 period and then 15.05 to close. The 2nd one looked more dangerous than a casual profit booking. I was watching the price fluctuation in RELIANCE and HDFCBK — the volumes and swings were pretty unusual.
Both of them fell from the high of the day, RELIANCE even hit the low of the day in this period. Brutal swings accompanied by huge volumes — most likely a news flow driven price action.
On the 1hr TF Nifty has gone almost vertical for the last 900pts. Ideally it would be good if it consolidates at these levels. If the consolidation doesn’t happen — there is a high risk of fall. For Monday I wish to maintain the same 50% neutral 50% bullish stance. And wish to go short if 20100 level is getting taken out.
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BankNifty Analysis
Banknifty also had a similar chart pattern like Nifty50. The good thing is that it has caught up near the all time highs. We just have 98pts to be taken out for a new lifetime high.
Today’s price action and the far OTM premiums were totally out of sync. The volatility was falling still there were adequate price swings — which is not the case usually. I waited and waited for the prices to hit the limit price and ended up not getting filled. Today’s message being — Dont be too greedy, especially in low VIX environment.
On the 1hr TF banknifty is still looking strong. The main question is what was the freak behaviour of HDFCBK in the last 30mts of trade today. If its a positive news flow we will end up hitting a new ATH on monday. If its negative — it could end up crashing the markets as well — such is the power of this elephant.
For monday I wish to maintain the bullish stance and would like to reverse and go short only if the 45910 levels are getting taken out.
· Free charts made with ❤️ on TradingView
· You can reach me via email at balu@viswaram.com