04 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty | Nifty is almost breaking out, BN is still flattish
Nifty Analysis
Seeing the price action on Friday, we had changed the status from bearish to neutral. But by seeing the strength today, I wish to go full bullish for tomorrow. To start with we had a gap-up opening of 103pts ~ 0.53% and then a quick fall to yesterday’s close.
Luckily Nifty took support right there and then started moving upwards. The upward move from 10.40 to close came with minimal pull back or retracement — showing a clear path for further bull run.
The real thrust came from the NiftyIT index which had a flattish move till 10.45 and then a surge of 2.18% ~ 687pts from there till close. This is the reason why Nifty outperformed BankNifty today.
On the 1hr TF, you can see the encircled regions, where we tried to break out from the bearish channel only to be pulled back to it later. Today’s price action has created an island-like formation and somehow avoided the fall. As it stands its a bullish break-away signal and if we dont make a down day tomorrow & wednesday then we can confirm further uplift due to the sentiment reversal. I wish to go with a full bullish stance tomorrow wherein 19584 has to be taken out in the first 2 hours and the final close should be above 19600. On the other hand, If we start falling back to the 19300 zone — the bears will come back super strong.
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BankNifty Analysis
Banknifty on the other hand had a freakish open and first 5mts move. Few of the OTM strike premiums shot up above 100% above the previous close values showing either low liquidity or very high speculation. We even fell 0.77% ~ 345pts between the open and 10.35 and the price action was indicating further weakness. But just like Nifty got support, BankNifty also turned right at this level.
We climbed back 277pts ~ 0.63% from there, but the bullish intent was not as strong as Nifty. The 2nd swing did not take out the day’s high set at open unlike Nifty.
BankNifty may need some stronger thrust to go fully bullish, currently it is in the process of forming a triple bottom or break-out from a double top pattern. I would like to wait for some more signals before going fully bullish. At present I am 60% neutral and 40% bullish for tomorrow.
Since we have FinNifty expiry tomorrow and BankNifty expiry on wednesday (Its first wednesday expiry after the NSE changes) — it may look interesting if we pick up some premiums by tomorrow. The best way for that is to have some violent moves.