28 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty | Nifty still unable to breach the channel
Nifty Analysis
Contrary to the expectations, today turned out to be a boring day. The open was right at the SR level of 19310, still it was gap up as our prior close was near 19250 levels. Even then the resistance breach did not come then, we had to wait till 11.15 for a 5mts candle above the SR zone.
BankNifty was looking in tremendous form today, we will discuss that separately in the analysis below. Due to this Nifty was also staying afloat, the real breach of resistance came at 12.30 only. And it looked like we may break out from the channel today.
But by 14.05 it became quite clear that we will not have a break-out today. Surprisingly Nifty gave a final close below 19310 which still gives hope to bears.
On the 1hr chart — things are still not clear. There is an overlap of 2 technical patterns.
1. Walling wedge
2. Bearish channel
Most importantly the 19310 support/resistance stands in between. A break in support may cause Nifty to follow the bearish channel. Whereas a breach in resistance will give Nifty breakout momentum as it exits the falling wedge. I wish to go with a neutral stance for tomorrow till we get some clarity.
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BankNifty Analysis
Banknifty was in tremendous form today, it seemed like it came prepared to rally today. Even though point wise we had only a 403pts ~ 0.91% intraday swing, the context was so important. Firstly banknifty defended the 44068 support below which it would have got a serious bearish bias.
Secondly we had a breakout on 24th Aug where we went up till 44949. Today’s price action gave hope & meaning to it. Banknifty usually reacts first in a trend change, most likely if we have a strong session tomorrow due to Finnifty expiry (mostly banks) then Nifty is also likely to breakout from the bearish channel.
On the 1hr chart Banknifty has broken out from the falling wedge and also rejected the support @ 44068. I wish to look out for bullish opportunities for tomorrow as long as the current structure is maintained. A breach of support 44068 will force me to change stance from bullish to bearish.