24 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty | Weekly Expiry Analysis + Another fake move today?
Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has just gone up by 32pts ~ 0.17%. But this week has seen a wide swing of 332pts ~ 1.72% i.e from the low of the week to the high of the week. The drama mostly in today’s price action which we will be discussing shortly.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was action filled with drama right from the start. A mega gap up open of 94pts ~ 0.49% and then a steady climb of another 47pts to hit the HOD @ 19584. And from there a totally unexpected reversal that brought Nifty back to the falling wedge pattern.
The gap up was expected mainly because of the breakout we saw in banknifty (which had exited the falling wedge pattern) + the good handouts from the global markets. India also landed Chandraayan on the Moon which would have built the euphoric levels.
From the report yesterday, I advised to go long and personally I took the long position as soon as we opened. The further upmoves reinforced my decision. But the reversal started happening, I had to buy some PUTs to save my long CALLs. I was hoping the pullback will not close the gap — the real surprise came when it went below the falling wedge pattern — more or less negating the gap-up & breakout possibilities.
On the 1hr TF you can notice the magnitude of the gap we had and the intensity of the shorts that followed. The momentum was so deep to pierce through the bearish trendline (blue color) with so much ease. Another 60+ points fall would have forced me to go short today. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance from bullish to bearish. If we trade above the trend line for more than an hour — I wish to go long. And if we fall below 19310 — I wish to go short. Till then prefer to stay neutral.
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BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has gained 595pts ~ 1.36%. This is exactly why I said banknifty works as a leading indicator to detect trend changes. If you notice carefully the outperformance has started in BN, not quite in N50 (up only 0.17% weekly). And in the turn of events today, BN held its ground — cheers for that !
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was action packed just like Nifty’s. If you are an options trader a simple glance at the OTM premiums will help you understand what I am trying to say. Since we had a gap-up opening an implosion in implied volatility followed which killed the options premium.
Once we hit the day’s high 44949 @ 09.45 and the reversal started — the options premiums (OTMs) started jumping unusually. And what followed was a strong profit taking I must say. We fell 513 pts ~ 1.14% from the HOD to the LOD today. The intensity of the fall 1.10% was the same as that of Nifty but a higher gap-up combined with a climb to the high of the day gave banknifty a better closing than expected.
BN closed flat at 0.04% compared with N50 which fell 0.29%. Also on the 1hr TF banknifty is still bullish as the falling wedge pattern is untouched. As long as it stays this way, the momentum will pick in BN and a breakout will play out.
On the other hand if we get into the falling wedge pattern even after the convergence, it results in an immediate support breach which is quite bad news for the bulls. Looking at the performance this week — the trend should favor the bulls wherein the Nifty bulls could play the catch-up. I prefer to maintain my bullish stance for tomorrow and will be forced to go directly to bearish if 44068 is taken out on the hourly candle.