31 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty | Sharp Reversal in Bearish Sentiments
Nifty50 Analysis
It is almost safe to say that Nifty has crawled out of bear grip, on friday we did discuss the last 45mts that changed the game. Except for the first 5mts candle, rest of the play today was from the same script of Friday.
The biggest mistake was to assume the first candle may pull down Nifty50 — I was secretly hoping it did. One pointer was the gap of 120+ points in GiftNifty futures. NiftyIT started weak and then it picked up some serious momentum which gave Nifty the thrust. From 14.40 RELIANCE took over (might be the new jio laptop news leaked early). The intraday LOD to HOD rally was 174pts ~ 0.89%.
On the 1hr TF it has made a beautiful U shaped pattern at the 19600 support level. As soon as 19700 was taken out today — I had to change by bias from neutral to long. For a new short position — nifty has to fall more than 300+ pts in 1 to 2 days — which looks like a distant possibility. Whereas to go long, it just needs to take out the 19881 levels in a week’s time — which seems more than possible.
BankNifty Analysis
Banknifty on the other hand had a steady and gradual rise from the swing low set in the last session. The opening 5mts candle did take out some points, but the recovery was smooth and meaningful.
ICICI Bank had fallen in the forenoon session, whereas HDFCBK was trading above water with good strength. SBIN and AXIS had good starts and then gave away the momentum by 11.00 to 12.00 window. Kotak was the only bank from the top 6 that was not contributing to gains today — was that a results impact?
Banknifty is still not showing bullishness like Nifty, agreed that the bearishness has faded out — the best stance we can take at present will be neutral and watch how the FinNifty expiry goes tomorrow.
Almost all the sectors are showing green might propel BankNifty up. Let us see how it goes!