17 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty | 130pts up after 11.25AM 😲
Nifty Analysis
Remember how we closed on Friday? — up 110pts in 30mts. I seriously thought we would be seeing some profit booking today. So I carefully watched the opening price levels and exited my long position by 11.10.
All the trading indicators, technicals were saying more bullishness for nifty50. Even the options flow indicated the same. At 11.10 Nifty was looking bullish & banknifty was showing only sideways movement.
2 major global news hit the market
On a normal day, similar news could paint the markets in red & I did not want to take a risk, that is why I sold off the long position by 11.10 and waited on the sidelines.
It turned out to be a disaster, nifty went up another 129pts ensuring my position would have returned 750% returns if I hung on. The rally was kick started by Reliance & then HDFCBK joined the party with impressive Q1 results.
The chart, moving averages & other technical indicators are all showing immense bullishness now also. However I wish to stay out of this party for this expiry week.
BankNifty Analysis
The real move on banknifty came after HDFCBK declared its results i.e after 12.45. Till then it was happy to trade in a flattish manner. The opening 4 x 5mts candle was interesting, but the downside was also limited as there was no real selling pressure.
Once the HDFCBK results were out, banknifty started surging. Even other banks also joined the party. We went up 826pts ~ 1.85% between 12.45 to 15.20. Once it crossed the 45000 level — it was like it found some additional firepower.
Most of them would have missed the counterbalance move in NiftyIT. It fell over 2.26% ~ 715pts during the period when banknifty was gaining. This might be to keep nifty50 in a tight range.
On Friday we discussed how the breakout from the bearish trend line would give banknifty momentum. Today was an example of that, even though enticing — I did not build up long position in banknifty today. Thought will reserve the funds for the FinNifty expiry tomorrow.
PS: The trades taken are no recommendation, blindly following them may cause more harm than good — read full disclaimer here