06 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty & BankNifty + Weekly Analysis | I am a believer today!
I became a believer today, amazing outperformance by our stock market indices, Nifty50 hits a new all time high of 19512.2 (conquering the 19500 level for the first time). At 19350 levels I had an interim top call & the market has proven me wrong (yet again).
Today’s super surge is nothing short of extra ordinary, the global cues were pretty negative after US FED indicated further rate hike possibilities. As I write this report, SPX is down 1.3%. Still our Nifty50 propelled to new highs.
The breakouts are not stopping, the bulls have chased away the bears yet again.
Weekly Analysis Nifty50
Between last expiry Jun 28th & today, Nifty50 has gained 2.57% ~ 488pts. The neatest ~ 500pts rally I have seen in a while. This is absolutely due to the breakout we had from the 18880 levels!
Today’s Analysis
We had an intraday rally from LOD to HOD of 138pts ~ 0.72%. The leg1 of spike was from open to 11.35 where we gained 0.51% and then leg 2 was short & crisp 14.05 to 15.10 with gains of 0.37%. The closing 1hr yet again proving to be pivotal w.r.t movements.
The daily candle on N50 looks even more exciting with 6 strong green candles out of the last 8 working days. Who is going to tame the bull now?
Weekly Analysis BankNifty
Between the last expiry & today, banknifty has gained 923pts ~ 2.08%. The rally not as neat as Nifty50 but more than enough to get the job done. Remember BN hit a new ATH this week.
Today’s Analysis
BankNifty did not follow N50 initially, for a noticeable time BN was hinting at a sideways move. HDFCBk started the day in red, ICICI & Kotak was looking to rally but the other major banks were not that excited at start.
If you notice, when N50 hit a new ATH, BN was still not able to get through the recent swing high. Still BN managed to close the day with gains of 0.42%. At 14.15 seeing the huge green candle, i even thought we might cross the 45500 levels today.
What BN has done today is to defend the recent support level. I have also drawn the 44778 line to show the recent level from where we have a breakaway gap.
When the interest rates rise, the banks come under severe stress as the NPAs could rise. Having said that US02Y is at 5.06% something not seen for the last 15 years. And the last time we had something like this a recession followed.
The banks in India are still on cloud 9, as RBI has not allowed the interest rate of bonds to exceed the 7.2% as of now!
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