Bank Nifty Today — 28 DEC 2022 Post Mortem & Analysis
When i said i was bearish yesterday, a drop of 32pts was not what i was referring to. Bank nifty held its head high almost the entire day, only the 15.10 candle shows some signs of weakness & a minor break of support.
I was literally unable to take any trades today such was the move of bank nifty today. Well it did not move — killing out the premiums of options both CE and PE. Usually i dont miss any day or sizeable opportunity — but today it was quite a different day !
As you all know i am an option seller only when there is anomaly, i can say with 100% guarantee that today there was nothing. Either the total volumes were very low & speculations were near zero. Or the traders were not taking fresh positions for the expiry tomorrow.
Finally the only trade i took today was a ratio spread by selling 1 lot of 42500 PE and buying 2 lots of 42400 PE — yes a bearish bet for tomorrow. The options premium are not indicating any direction and this position i took was basically a hunch not backed by any indicator or confirmed signals.
Yesterday the US markets SPX closed with losses of 0.4%, Nasdaq with a loss of 1.48%. Prior to all these happening i had written in the article yesterday that if US trades lower there is every possibility that we end the day red on 28th.
We did end the day in RED — but i am not at all happy, as i was expecting cuts of more than 1% on Nifty50, 2% on bank nifty and a bigger fall on NiftyIT.
Of the bank nifty components:
- HDFC bk and ICICI bank had a similar chart pattern and both ending in red.
- SBI’s chart pattern was looking bullish but the last 30mts brought it below the flat line.
- AXIS bank has something fishy, the cuts in the last 45mts were brutal with heavy volumes.
- Kotak had one special candle at 13.45 with high volumes but probably this was sold into in the last 45mts
- IndusInd held its ground and ended the day in green.
15mts vs 1hr could be a lower high formation if i got it right. Monthly expiry coming up tomorrow and much fierce US market trading days ahead.
Low volumes may spike the spreads wider creating sharper moves but with little meaning.
