BankNifty &Nifty50 Today — 12 JUN 2023 Post-Mortem Analysis
Quite an unexpected performance by NiftyIT today up +1.51% which would have spoiled the party for the Nifty50 bears. Last week as it ended was looking pretty negative for Nifty and flattish for BankNifty.
Banknifty had a steady day today, down only 0.1% but the prices were consistently falling giving the impression that selling is still not over.
From a technical perspective, banknifty has broken no support nor was looking dangerous. It just looked like a day where banknifty did not want to rally!
HDFCBK and ICICIBANK were struggling to keep Nifty50 flat whereas INFY & TCS were pulling it to the top. Even nifty50 did not do anything technically today, although the first candle looked dangerous and had given the impression we will have a lower low today.
The option prices on Nifty50 were again more volatile than Banknifty, I am starting to think which one has a higher beta these days. From an option seller’s perspective, it makes no sense to trade banknifty at these premium levels. BN spot is at 44000 and 45000 CE has a premium of Rs12 with 3 days to expiry.
Usually, I see a price of Rs12 for a strike 1000pts away on Wednesday close, imagine the same value on a Monday close. Nifty50 options premium even though low is far better than banknifty — there is enough juice to be squeezed.
15mts TF is still range bound, but we have a peak formation inside this range. The prices have hit the lower & upper end of the range multiple times now. This could indicate a range expansion soon!
1hr shows a double top like pattern formed at the all time high zone. The pull back we had from ATH could be entirely technical due to positioning. We will wait for the lower end of the range to break to conclude if a new downward trend is starting or not.
You can read my latest book on amazon “183 days of Post mortem on BankNifty” at just Rs99 — click here
View my research analyst certification — click here