BankNifty & Nifty50 Today — 28 JUN 2023 Post-Mortem + Quarterly | Monthly | Weekly Expiry Analysis
28th June 2023 was the last day of quarterly/monthly/weekly expiry. And a good one to remember too. Nifty50, BankNifty & Finnifty hit a fresh all time high today.
The fresh ATHs are:
- Nifty — 19011.25
- BankNifty — 44508.4
- Finnifty — 19954.9
Yesterday NSE had advanced the expiry day from 29th June to 28th June. This opened the flood gates of buying into all the major stocks. RELIANCE & ITC which did not participate yesterday — surged today helping N50.
Today’s research report is going to be a bit lengthy as we will be analyzing
- Quarterly gains of all 3 indices
- Monthly & Weekly analysis of banknifty
- Daily analysis BankNifty & Nifty50
Quarterly Analysis of BankNifty — 31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
Banknifty gained an impressive 4412pts ~ 11.05% in Q1 FY2023–24. During this process it took out 11 crucial resistance points to finish at the ATH. The upmove was quite strong till 15th May after which BN started trading sideways. Status quo changed on 27th when it broke through the final resistance point of 44068 paving way for an ATH record break today.
Quarterly Analysis of Nifty50 — 31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
N50 also rose 11.06% ~ 1888pts, percentage wise same as BN. The price action of N50 was much more healthy with 2 proper legs & occasional retracement that gave it further thrust. If you analyze the pattern from 01 Dec to 28 Jun it looks like a perfect V shape. 16962 support which provided the crucial turn around will be remembered for the next 2 quarters.
Quarterly Analysis of FinNifty–31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
Finnifty gained a total of 11.79% ~ 2097pts and the price action was much steeper than BN & N50.
Monthly Expiry Analysis Banknifty — 26 May 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
BN gained 1.64% ~ 716pts in the current month. Basically on 29th May it hit the ATH level and from there we had 2 resistance rejections & 2 support rejections.
Weekly Expiry Analysis Banknifty — 23 Jun 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
BN rallied 1.54% ~ 671pts in the current expiry week. Of this 100% of the gains came between yesterday and today. Prior to that BN was looking weak and was heading to the support area. The sentiment change lifted BN to break through.
Daily Analysis BankNifty
Most of the hard-work was done by the Gap-up opening. Out of the total 0.47% gains, 0.4% gain came via the gapup. BN was just maintaining its cool today and did not try to do anything foolish. N50 was rallying very strongly, BN just utilized that momentum to finish with a new ATH.
The chart indicates a steady rising pattern, unlike the usual BN where we have lots of wild swings. Notice the 3 green candles between 14.15 to 14.25 — thats when the ATH was taken out. After that we did see some profit booking plus monthly rebalancing outflow/inflow adjustments by Mutual Fund houses.
Daily Analysis Nifty50
N50 came prepared today to take out the ATH. During the report yesterday — we did seriously consider this possibility. The momentum really favored the bulls and once RELIANCE started contributing — gains started flowing like a song!
Gap up gave N50 a head start of 0.38%, intraday it swung 1% & finally closing with 0.82% gains.
Whats Next? would be an ideal question now. Indian stock markets are at euphoric levels even without strong retail participation. Once the news hit the common people, will the FOMO kick in?
Stock markets are no way a reflection of what is happening in the economy. The prices of groceries, vegetables, eggs etc are rising day by day — straining the budget of common people. Will the economy rise to match the stock market or will the market falls to be in sync with the economy — only time will tell !
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