BankNifty Today — 22 Jun 2023 Post-Mortem | Weekly Expiry | Nifty50 Analysis
Weekly Analysis of BankNifty
Banknifty is up 259pts between 15th to 22nd June i.e. current expiry week. Interestingly, BN was looking at steeper cuts on 15th — the price action was pretty negative. Luckily that level is still sacrosanct and has formed an interim support as we had one more retest @ 20th June.
Today’s Analysis
The major anomaly that stands out in today’s trade is the inverted V shaped pattern. 8 consecutive green candles to rise 324pts ~ 0.74% and then 5 consecutive red candles to fall 377pts ~ 0.86%.
We opened inline and the close was in red, down -0.31%, but this unique rise2fall stands out. Nifty50 also had a similar pattern which we will discuss shortly.
Its quite normal to expect some choppiness due to expiry, but the magnitude of 300+ move getting negated immediately — looks like a strong hand at play. Pattern similar to low Mcap pump and dump penny stocks. BN has still not managed to cross the 44068 resistance & poses a big question mark on why its not supporting N50 to take out its ATH.
Nifty50 on the other hand came prepared to take out the ATH today, unfortunately NiftyIT was not supporting it. BN gave initial push 18886.6 we are just 1pt short of the last ATH hit on 01 Dec 2022.
The Narendra Modi factor would be at play here, his current US visit may bring in more job, investment, partnership opportunities & the quick to gain from all these would be the Nifty50 companies.
The fall of 108pts ~ 0.57% between 10.25 to 13.05 and then a fall of 102.1pts ~ 0.54% from 13.45 to 15.15 looked quite serious. The support of 18762.9 was held and we closed just above that.
The pump-and-dump like pattern even though visible is not creating anomaly in N50 because today’s price action in whole looks like a 2 legged downside fall.
1hr TF for N50 has formed a double top like pattern. Further trades below the support of 18762 will give it downside momentum.
Banknifty on the other hand had created a double top like pattern between 30th May & 8th June. Currently the support level of 43404 is in play and a break will ensure the range based trade will finally get over.
Bank of England has raised the interest rate by 50bps to 5% as the inflation came higher than expected. The consensus estimates were 25bps hike. Not that it matters for Indian stock markets that much, but one thing I am honestly thinking is England might be the only major country to report Inflation more or less accurate with the reality.
What if the brands here has found a way to circumvent the price-hike factor?
What if a company which was offering a 100g item for Rs100 is still offering it for the same Rs100 price, but only 90g. The customer would only spend same as usual, but would adjust the consumption to fit the offering.
I personally go out shopping groceries & return shocked every single time. I feel the poor people will not be able to afford basic home needs.
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