Nifty & BankNifty Analysis — 02 Apr 2024 — Flat day, consolidating or deciding to reverse?
Nifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “But before we go long, let us give it a day or two because the reaction today may be the after-effect of the adjustments and rebalancing that was done over the last 2 to 3 days due to year-end.”
Nifty was falling gradually, almost maintaining the same slope as yesterday. The final 90 minutes saw some activity against that slope, which ensured that we were closing flat for the day. If you consider the 0.71% fall in NiftyIT, it is quite commendable that Nifty and BankNifty held their ground. Honestly, NiftyIT falling was not a good sign — we should be seriously watching that sector to see if there are any weaknesses in the pipeline. NiftyIT is the first sector to react based on global macros (anything except Crude Oil).
We wish to maintain the bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we will be a bit cautious if Nifty falls below 22393 levels. A stance revision may not be even required till 22295 is broken. In fact, Nifty might react more to domestic cues than international macros as elections are getting kicked off. We are going into the campaigns with a historically low VIX of 11.6525, I am quite sure this should start rising pretty soon.
BankNifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
BankNifty defends the support of 47465 today also, much-needed confirmation to hold on to our bullish stance. The next leg of the rally should ideally come from the banking sector. But the biggest concern I have is that the actual torch bearer of the directional trend has shifted to NiftyIT from BankNifty. From Jan 2024, BN has been a laggard whereas NiftyIT did drive the Nifty50’s directions. The power struggle was quite obvious as Jan to March was pretty bad for most option traders. Neither the trend following nor the option selling strategies worked out.
NiftyIT is currently in a reversing trend. If BankNifty starts to move up and IT moves down and if Nifty sides with IT rather than the banks then we are in for a big disappointment. Let us hope the Banks take back the control from IT, the rationale being it is the sector with the highest weightage. The trend is safer if the highest weighted sector drives the show.
The first thing BN has to do is take out the ATH. We wish to start the day tomorrow with a bullish tone and then switch to a cautious mode if 47465 support is getting broken. Tomorrow being expiry, a 100+ quick points move could surge the options premium. As it stands the premiums are not suggesting any directional move.
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs31517, again I pulled the plug early to save the transaction costs and book 2/3rd of theoretical profits.
Webhooks automation run via TradingView on Dhan
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