BankNifty Today — 08 JUN 2023 Post-Mortem + Weekly Expiry Analysis

A good day to take out the support zone of 44068 — was it an over-reaction to the RBI rate decision today? Lets analyze. RBI MPC decided to keep the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% and continue its withdrawal of accommodative stance. Logically no major changes w.r.t last policy day. Handful of participants including me were expecting…

BankNifty Today — 12 MAY 2023 Post-Mortem Analysis

Another surprise today with 300pts ~ 0.69% move from 13.30 to 14.40, came at a time when no one really expected. Karnataka election results tomorrow and most traders would have anticipated we close the day subdued. The lower than expected CPI data of 4.7% would have leaked with few big-boys and they would have ended…

BankNifty Today — 06 APR 2023 Post-Mortem Analysis + RBI Decides Not to Hike Rates

Yesterday we discussed in detail the RBI MPC possibilities. If you read the article — I was expecting a hike. Surprisingly RBI maintained status quo today. Even when the inflation is at the elevated level a pause in rate hike should not be taken very lightly. An optimist would say it is an excellent decision that RBI…

Bank Nifty Today — 14 FEB 2023 Post Mortem & Analysis

We had a dramatic performance by Banknifty today even after a higher than expected inflation of 6.52%. Although we had 2 sharp moves, none of the support or resistance was broken — which means we still have no clue on the direction. Bank nifty opened at 41410 made a low at 9.47 just 0.51% ~ 212pts drop….

Bank Nifty Today — 13 FEB 2023 Post Mortem & Analysis

I was running out of content last week to write about, thank god we had some interesting price move today — hoping to see further action in this week. Mostly due to the above expected retail inflation surge of 6.52%. Bank nifty’s fall today was not due to the above expected CPI — i can say this with assurance…

Bank Nifty Today — 12 JAN 2023 Post Mortem & Expiry Analysis

Well for starters — yesterday’s bullish call didnt go that well. Niftybank ended 0.21% lower. Luckily its only down 37 odd pts because at 13.35 we were 595pts ~ 1.41% from the HOD. If you had read by bullish call before that — you would have thought i am crazy. From an expiry trading perspective today proved to be…

Bank Nifty Today — 10 NOV 2022 Weekly Expiry Analysis + Comparison with S&P500

Quite glad yesterday’s shorting idea worked — read here. But not that glad the last 2 hour recovery really messed with my analysis. Bank nifty opened gap down at 41462 (right at the support line of 41459). BN tried to close the gap in the first 5mts itself but didnt have enough momentum. Yesterday we had analyzed…

How GDP, GST & Inflation numbers do not convey the reality?

For a developed economy like the US, Europe, or Japan — the GDP numbers & the tax collections would indicate how much they have advanced every quarter, every year. But for a country like India — GDP, GST & Inflation data are just statistics. It cannot explain with certainty if we are progressing or regressing. Let us try to…